It's great you're looking into the long-term outcomes of ABA and ESDM! Recent studies show that both therapies lead to significant short-term gains, but ESDM demonstrates stronger evidence for sustained, long-term benefits.

Specifically, research indicates that ESDM shows maintained intellectual ability, adaptive behavior, reduced symptom severity, and improved core autism symptoms up to 2 years post-intervention, compared to ABA-heavy approaches. One study even suggests personalizing the approach: using ESDM for social deficits and ABA for adaptive needs. You can find more details on the long-term benefits of ESDM here: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2mn000m0 and https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4475272/.